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Polymarket forecasting and research tools

Evaluate an estimate by how it was produced and which event it describes. Forecasting tools and AI research can offer a probability estimate, but the supporting evidence determines what you can assess.

How to choose forecasting

Read the estimate with its scope

A forecast and the market price are different measures. Compare the evidence, assumptions and time horizon before interpreting a difference between them.

Inspect the basis

  • Follow citations to the underlying material.
  • Review model inputs and assumptions.
  • Check what any calibration claim actually covers.
  • Match the time horizon to the contract’s event.
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47 tools · 1–12 shown

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CME FedWatch information page introducing the rate-probability tool
CME FedWatch
Research tool4.0Editorial

Use a futures-based reference for FOMC expectations, with meeting dates and target-rate ranges.

  • Access Web
Good Judgment Open challenges and question discovery
Good Judgment Open
Learning & media4.0Editorial

Practice probability judgments, discuss evidence and compare records through public questions and themed challenges.

  • Access Web
Manifold product overview
Manifold
Platform4.0Editorial

Create a market, explain your forecast and build a public record using virtual stakes.

  • Access Web · Mobile app
Official Metaculus tutorial showing how to set a binary probability.
Metaculus
Research tool4.0Editorial

Direct probability forecasting with community comparison, defined resolution criteria and scored records.

  • Access Web · API
Seeker Labs public index-research homepage and venue-coverage navigation
Seeker Labs
Analytics4.0Editorial

Explore themed prediction-market benchmarks and their construction, keeping consensus, disagreement and venue activity distinct.

  • Access Web
Climate Sight station report with settlement references and a market summary.
Climate Sight
Research tool3.5Editorial

Weather-contract research organized by observation station, market date and settlement references.

  • Access Web
EventWaves earnings-mentions research with company and speaker filters
EventWaves
Analytics3.5Editorial

Compare historical earnings-call language with speakers, competitor mentions, market prices and forecasts.

  • Access Web
Eversight research composer and market attachment entry
Eversight and Signals APIs
Research tool3.5Editorial

Request probabilities and retrieve attributed market signals through separate Numinous research APIs.

  • Access Web · API
Headline Arena overview of its forecast markets.
Headline Arena
Research tool3.5Editorial

AI forecast research with public reasoning, revision histories, resolved scorecards and paid API tools.

  • Access Web · API
HuskyWeather station observations, model layers and supported coverage
HuskyWeather
Analytics3.5Editorial

Compare station readings, forecast models and daily warming patterns in a weather-research terminal with a Telegram entry point.

  • Access Web · Telegram
LazyEdge official sports terminal and API presentation
LazyEdge
Research tool3.5Editorial

A model-versus-market sports terminal, with higher-tier API, webhook routing and WebSocket access.

  • Access Web · API
Mention Markets public demo with term search, cumulative mention chart and event filters.
Mention Markets
Research tool3.5Editorial

Transcript and post search with word-form controls, frequency charts and adjustable context for mention-market research.

  • Access Web