PredictionToolkit
What is Manifold?
A disputed claim can become a user-created market with its own observable outcome, deadline and resolution source. Participants express views through trading and comments, so the current crowd estimate can be read together with the reasoning behind it. Topic discovery covers politics, technology, sports and other subjects, with access through the web and linked mobile app.
Use the public record to examine forecast updates and settled questions, not as a cash-return track record. Resolution wording depends on the market author, and a thin market may move with only a few participants. Prize drawings have a free-entry route and their own entry and payout rules; they do not create a cash-redemption right for mana.
Who it is for
- Forecasters practicing with virtual stakes.
- Communities wanting to create and discuss their own questions.
- Researchers studying probability changes alongside participant reasoning.
Features and coverage
- User-created questions
Create a market rather than waiting for an exchange to list the question, and write its resolution criteria.
- Virtual outcome shares
Express a view with virtual mana and read the market’s current crowd probability.
- Evidence and discussion
Use comments to explain evidence, challenge assumptions and discuss forecast changes.
- Topics and public records
Browse politics, technology, sports and other topics, then follow traders and their past activity.
- Web and mobile access
Use the web service or its linked mobile application.
- Separate prize drawings
Optional prize drawings have separate rules and do not convert mana into withdrawable cash.
Workflows with Manifold
Write a useful market question
Specify an observable outcome, deadline and resolution source before inviting other traders.
Practice updating a forecast
Record an initial view, then adjust it when new evidence changes the probability and explain important changes in comments.
Read a market as research
Compare price changes with comments and participant activity, then revisit resolved questions to assess your judgment.
Pricing and total cost
New users receive 1,000 mana. It is play money that cannot be redeemed for cash. Prize drawings offer a free-entry path and use separate participation and payout rules.
Getting started
Before you start: Mana performance does not measure cash trading returns.
- Create an account and read a market’s rules before using the allocated virtual mana.
- Explain important forecast updates in comments; define resolution clearly if creating your own market.
- Review resolved questions and your public history to evaluate forecasting judgment.
Virtual profits are not cash trading returns.
Useful links
What to check
- Mana performance does not measure cash trading returns.
- Resolution wording is written by users and varies in quality.
- A small group can move a thinly traded market.
- Prize drawings do not make mana redeemable for cash.
A closer look
Ratings & reviews
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Frequently asked questions about Manifold
Can mana be withdrawn as cash?
No. Mana is virtual play money; prize drawings follow a separate program.
How much does a new account receive?
A new user starts with 1,000 mana.
Can users create their own questions?
Yes. Define the outcome, deadline and resolution criteria clearly so others can trade and discuss the question.
Are prize drawings the same as trading winnings?
No. Drawings have separate entry and payout rules, including a free-entry route.