PredictionToolkit
What is FRED Economic Data?
Maintained by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, FRED provides search and browsing by category, release and source. Series metadata and charts help place a new observation in context and identify the organisation supplying the data.
A prediction-market question still needs matching to the exact measure. A seasonally adjusted index, an unadjusted observation and a percentage change can answer different questions despite similar labels. FRED aggregates named sources and is not a Polymarket oracle: the contract’s specified release authority and revision rules determine which observation matters.
Who it is for
- Macro researchers checking the economic definitions in market contracts.
- Analysts comparing a new release with historical observations.
Features and coverage
- Series discovery
Search economic terms or browse categories, releases and sources to locate the relevant series.
- Historical charts and metadata
Explore observations over time while checking units, the data source and the series definition.
- Release calendar
Follow scheduled economic releases alongside the associated data.
Workflows with FRED Economic Data
Match the contract precisely
Identify the required release, units, adjustment and reporting period before choosing a FRED series.
Add historical context
Compare the new value with earlier observations, reading revision and release notes so different vintages are not confused.
Pricing and total cost
Public data browsing and charts do not require a paid subscription. The original data providers’ terms and reuse conditions still apply.
Access: Basic public research needs no account. Personal saved features use their own account process.
Getting started
Before you start: FRED aggregates data from identified sources and does not act as a Polymarket oracle.
- Search for the economic measure named in the contract.
- Read the series units, source and release metadata.
- Compare the exact reporting period and revision treatment with the contract wording.
Basic public research is available without an account; personal saved features have a separate account flow.
Useful links
What to check
- FRED aggregates data from identified sources and does not act as a Polymarket oracle.
- Follow the contract’s release authority and revision rules rather than assuming the latest chart value settles the market.
- Source and reuse terms apply even when browsing is free.
A closer look
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Frequently asked questions about FRED Economic Data
Will any CPI series answer a CPI contract?
No. Match the specified index, seasonal adjustment, reporting period and calculation of change.
Does the latest revised historical value always settle the market?
No. Some contracts use the first release. Follow the contract’s revision rules and select the appropriate release vintage.
Is there a paid research subscription?
Public browsing and charts are available without one. Individual source and reuse terms still apply.
Do I need to sign in?
Not for basic public research. Personal saved features have a separate account process.