PredictionToolkit
What is ForecastEx?
Contracts specify an event threshold, reference period and named resolution source, including government or other designated releases. Questions can cover weekly, monthly, quarterly or annual horizons. Prices move in $0.01 increments; at settlement the correct contract pays $1 and the incorrect contract pays $0, before accounting for acquisition cost and fees.
The information website is a research and broker-discovery surface, not the retail trading account. The exchange distributes collateral income to members monthly, but each broker decides the client’s coupon treatment. Broker eligibility, additional charges and that pass-through policy therefore belong in the venue comparison.
Who it is for
- Users comparing economic and climate event-contract venues.
- Traders who already use a participating member broker.
- Researchers examining event contracts with collateral-income distributions.
Features and coverage
- Specified binary questions
Choose Yes or No against a contract’s event threshold and read its named resolution source.
- Several time horizons
Research weekly, monthly, quarterly and annual contract questions.
- Price steps and settlement
Prices use $0.01 steps. A correct contract settles at $1 and an incorrect contract at $0.
- Opposite-contract close-out
Offset an existing position by buying the other contract rather than treating closure as an ordinary sale.
- Monthly incentive coupons
Collateral income is distributed to members monthly; the broker determines how clients receive it.
- Member-broker directory
Find the supported account-access route through a participating broker.
Workflows with ForecastEx
Research an upcoming release
Match your forecast with the contract threshold, reference period and named data source before evaluating its price.
Estimate an early exit
Include the opening contract’s execution fee and the fee on the opposite contract used to close, alongside the available prices and any broker charges.
Check client coupon treatment
Coupon treatment is a broker decision, not a uniform retail entitlement. Before choosing an account, establish which share of the member's monthly collateral income can reach you and the conditions governing that pass-through.
Pricing and total cost
ForecastEx lists a $0.01 transaction fee per contract, charged to each side at execution. Additional broker charges may apply.
Fees and usage costs
- The exchange passes collateral income to members monthly. The amount or coupon treatment reaching a client depends on the member broker.
Getting started
Before you start: Opposite-contract closing depends on available prices and incurs execution costs.
- Read the contract specification and named resolution source.
- Choose a broker from the member directory and complete its required account setup.
- Compare price and total fees, then use that broker’s supported order workflow.
- For early closure, inspect the cost of purchasing the opposite contract.
Closing requires an opposite-contract purchase, so its available price and fees determine the realized result.
Useful links
What to check
- Opposite-contract closing depends on available prices and incurs execution costs.
- A monthly coupon does not replace the contract’s eventual $0 or $1 settlement.
- Income received by a member and the amount passed to a retail client are distinct.
- The public information site is not a trading account; access depends on a participating broker and its requirements.
A closer look
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Frequently asked questions about ForecastEx
Can I sell a contract normally to close it?
The documented close-out model uses a purchase of the opposite contract. Include that purchase price and its fee in the exit calculation.
What does a correct contract pay?
It settles at $1 before purchase cost and fees; an incorrect contract settles at $0.
What execution fee does ForecastEx list?
The listed fee is $0.01 per contract charged to each side at execution, with possible additional broker charges.
Do all clients receive the same coupon?
The member broker determines its client treatment, so the exchange’s distribution to members does not establish a uniform retail coupon.