--- url: "https://predictiontoolkit.com/tools/weather-edge/" publisher: "PredictionToolkit" dateModified: "2026-11-02" --- [← Weather research]() Data feed # Weather Edge: ensemble temperature signals for Kalshi Weather Edge compares ensemble-derived temperature probabilities with Kalshi prices and describes a daily email signal workflow for a defined set of US cities. [**3.0**/ 5Editorial rating]() [Editorial assessment]() [Read Weather Edge methodology and signals]() stewyboy1990.github.io **Available on:** Web · Email **Pricing:** Daily email signals are advertised as free. [Screenshots]() [Explore alternatives]() [Weather research]() [Forecasting]() +1 more [Signals]() ## Screenshots and interface Product preview1 / 2 The sample results and the stated ensemble methodology. ## What is Weather Edge? The method combines 31 GFS and 51 ECMWF ensemble members, then applies an NWS point-forecast adjustment and city-specific uncertainty scaling. Those 82 inputs are members of two ensemble families, not 82 independent model families. A signal must pass the stated 8-percentage-point edge floor and a liquidity filter before the daily summary. The page lists scan cycles at 5, 7 and 9 AM Central Time. Its small, dated results table includes a restricted high-confidence subset, a fuller calibration sample and pending entries; read these separately rather than treating the table as a complete current performance series. The reviewed offering is weather research and email signals for Kalshi, not native Polymarket execution or a trading terminal. ### Who it is for - Researchers learning how ensemble forecasts map to contracts. - People following US-city temperature markets. - Readers comparing model disagreement with market prices. ## Features and coverage - **Ensemble inputs** Combine 31 GFS and 51 ECMWF members from the two named ensemble families. - **Bias adjustment** Use NWS point forecasts in the described correction. - **City calibration** Apply uncertainty scaling specific to each covered city. - **Signal threshold** The described minimum edge is 8 percentage points, not a relative percentage return. - **Liquidity filter** Exclude thin markets according to the model’s stated rules. - **Scan schedule** The page lists 5, 7 and 9 AM Central Time. - **Email summaries** Subscribe to the described daily signal email. - **Visible sample** Examine both the restricted high-confidence subset and the fuller calibration sample, including pending records. ## Workflows with Weather Edge ### Research a signal Match city, station, date and temperature threshold with the contract’s exact rules. ### Inspect model disagreement Read ensemble assumptions rather than substituting a single number from a weather app. ### Evaluate the history Separate resolved outcomes, pending entries and calibration-period records. ## Pricing and total cost Daily email signals are advertised as free. ## Getting started **Before you start:** The public sample does not establish current full-series performance. 1. Read the methodology. 2. Confirm covered cities and scan times. 3. Inspect the full sample record. 4. Subscribe if the coverage fits your markets. 5. Check each signal against the exact contract. The public results are a small, dated sample with pending entries, not a complete current performance series. ## Useful links ### What to check - The public sample does not establish current full-series performance. - The 82 inputs are ensemble members, not 82 independent model families. - The named venue is Kalshi; native Polymarket execution is not described. - Coverage is a defined set of US cities rather than every city. A closer look ## Ratings & reviews Editorial rating **3.0**/ 5 0 user reviews PredictionToolkit editorial ### Our take on Weather Edge Named ensembles, adjustments and a specific edge threshold make the methodology inspectable. The small dated table cannot establish current performance or reliable live coverage. Based on documented features, setup and access terms. [How we rate]() ### User reviews 0 The main score switches to user ratings after 5 published reviews. **Be the first to share your experience** A specific example helps the next person choose the right tool. ## Related tools [Browse category]() ![Climate Sight station report with settlement references and a market summary.]() ![Climate Sight logo]()[Climate Sight]() Research tool**3.5**Editorial Weather-contract research organized by observation station, market date and settlement references. - Access Web Compare another weather-research interface. ![METAR.ws WebSocket METAR API introduction and connection example]() ![METAR.ws logo]()[METAR.ws]() Data feed**3.5**Editorial Stream airport reports and station-level model signals for weather research without building a GRIB parsing pipeline. - Access API Also in Weather Research and Data for Prediction Markets. ![Provider preview of the WinWeatherBot Windows application]() ![WinWeatherBot logo]()[WinWeatherBot]() Trading bot**2.5**Editorial A Windows temperature-market scanner and bot with station mapping, exposure caps and configured volatility/drawdown stops. - Trading mode Live automation - Access Windows Compare a Windows product for weather automation. ## Frequently asked questions about Weather Edge ### Is Weather Edge a trading terminal? The reviewed service describes weather research and email signals, not order entry. ### Which models are used? GFS and ECMWF ensembles with an NWS adjustment. ### Are all cities covered? No. The page lists a defined set of US cities. In this profile