--- url: "https://predictiontoolkit.com/tools/prophet-arena/" publisher: "PredictionToolkit" dateModified: "2026-11-02" --- [← Forecasting]() ![Prophet Arena logo]() Research tool # Prophet Arena Prophet Arena evaluates models and agents by recording probabilities before future events resolve. Users can examine the research behind a forecast, compare scored results after settlement or submit a new question with a chosen model and research budget. [**3.5**/ 5Editorial rating]() [Editorial assessment]() [Open Prophet Arena]() prophetarena.co **Available on:** Web **Pricing:** [See plans and costs ↓]() [Screenshots]() [Explore alternatives]() [Forecasting]() [AI agents]() +1 more [Leaderboards]() ## Screenshots and interface Product preview1 / 2 Start a forecast or explore model standings. ## What is Prophet Arena? Open events expose probabilities and research steps, but have no final accuracy score. After resolution, Brier-style scoring and calibration provide different views of performance. The main leaderboard projects accuracy onto a comparable event set; event coverage and sample size still matter when interpreting a rank. A run’s trace shows problem framing, searches, source reading, findings, probability revisions and the final call. Weekly, community and archived standings add other comparison views. Developers can use documentation, datasets and hosted-model submission to understand how an agent enters the benchmark. ### Who it is for - For users comparing forecasting methods and researchers who want an inspectable evidence trail. - For developers assessing scoring and submission requirements before entering an agent. ## Features and coverage - **Pre-outcome forecasts and scoring** Models assign probabilities before outcomes are known; performance updates as events settle, with shared-event accuracy and calibration treated as distinct measures. - **Inspect a research trace** Read framing, searches, source reads, findings, probability changes and the final forecast rather than seeing only a number. - **Custom runs and builder resources** Choose a model and research budget for your question. Documentation, datasets and hosted-model submission support developer participation. ## Workflows with Prophet Arena ### Compare model evidence Compare resolved-event performance with sample coverage and calibration, rather than treating an unresolved forecast as a scored result. ### Audit probability changes Open a forecast trace and inspect which evidence supported its revisions and final call. ### Evaluate an agent submission Read submission and scoring requirements before entering an agent or comparing its results with leaderboard models. ## Pricing and total cost Public benchmark pages are browsable. Custom forecast costs vary with model and budget; a displayed mid-budget example is around $2 and is not a universal subscription price. ## Getting started **Before you start:** Shared-event accuracy adjustment and calibration answer different questions; differing event coverage limits direct ranking conclusions. 1. Open a leaderboard, inspect a resolved event and read its forecast trace. 2. For a new forecast, enter a question, choose a model and budget and review the displayed run cost. Unresolved questions do not yet have final accuracy scores. ## Useful links ### What to check - Shared-event accuracy adjustment and calibration answer different questions; differing event coverage limits direct ranking conclusions. - A forecast delivers research and a probability, not a trading order. A closer look ## Ratings & reviews Editorial rating **3.5**/ 5 0 user reviews PredictionToolkit editorial ### Our take on Prophet Arena Resolved-event scoring, comparable-event standings and research traces support meaningful model assessment. Unresolved questions and unequal coverage constrain rankings, while run cost depends on model and budget. Based on documented features, setup and access terms. [How we rate]() ### User reviews 0 The main score switches to user ratings after 5 published reviews. **Be the first to share your experience** A specific example helps the next person choose the right tool. ## Related tools [Browse category]() ![Alphascope market-research entry point and forecasting tools]() ![Alphascope logo]()[Alphascope]() Research tool**3.0**Editorial Request an AI forecast from a link, question or image, then compare market odds and news context. - Access Web Also in Forecasting and Research Tools. ![Polymarket Lens calibration chart and research explanation]() [Polymarket Lens]() Research tool**3.0**Editorial Compare reconstructed historical probabilities with resolved outcomes, keeping the proxy’s uncertain forecast horizon in view. - Access Web Explore prediction-market calibration. ![PolyMaster market-URL input and research-tool entry points]() ![PolyMaster logo]()[PolyMaster]() Research tool**3.0**Editorial Open research for a specific market, discuss it in PolyChat and compare report costs with the account’s credit allowance. - Access Web Compare an interactive research assistant. ## Frequently asked questions about Prophet Arena ### How are models assessed? Resolved events support Brier-style scores and calibration analysis. Runs expose step-by-step research traces for inspection. ### Can developers submit agents? Hosted-model submission and documentation are available; read the participation and scoring requirements before comparing results. In this profile