--- url: "https://predictiontoolkit.com/tools/prediction-index/" publisher: "PredictionToolkit" dateModified: "2026-11-03" --- [← Research]() ![Prediction Index logo]() Research tool # Prediction Index: trace geopolitical aggregates to their questions Prediction Index combines an ecosystem directory and the Chaos Index. The research aggregate separates escalation and peace scenarios, Polymarket and Kalshi surfaces, and market pricing from a language-model ensemble. [**3.0**/ 5Editorial rating]() [Editorial assessment]() [Open Prediction Index]() predictionindex.xyz **Pricing:** [See plans and costs ↓]() [Screenshots]() [Explore alternatives]() **Availability: public** [Research]() [Dashboards]() ## Screenshots and interface Product preview1 / 1 Displayed values are a captured snapshot, not proof of current model runs or inputs. ## What is Prediction Index? Constituent tables expose markets, clusters, forecast groups, weights and Yes odds, including entries with no weight. A war starting and a ceasefire failing are different questions; neither basket is an authoritative probability of every geopolitical outcome or a single tradable contract. The operator says Grok, GPT and Claude use independent prompts hiding market prices. Machine history begins with the first experiment, without backfilling. The captured page showed a September 29 machine run and August 25 constituent revision; LIVE labels do not establish current inputs. ### Who it is for - Researchers following geopolitical contract baskets. - Readers comparing market aggregates and model forecasts. - Builders mapping the prediction-market ecosystem. ## Features and coverage - **Separate baskets and venues** Inspect escalation and peace separately on Polymarket and Kalshi views. - **Visible constituents** Read markets, clusters, forecast groups, weights and Yes odds, including zero-weight entries. - **Market/model comparison** Compare individual Grok, GPT and Claude assessments and their spread with the market, preserving different timestamps. - **Ecosystem directory** Filter projects by outcome type, chain and status. Classifications are research leads rather than independent confirmation of capabilities. ## Workflows with Prediction Index ### Explain an index move Select venue and basket, inspect the largest weights and open underlying contracts to compare resolution conditions. ### Investigate disagreement Check model date and rules, then examine the largest gaps and model spread without treating older model values as current prices. ## Pricing and total cost Reading the homepage, ecosystem directory and Chaos Index does not require an account, and those public pages show no paid plan. This establishes access to the research pages; it does not establish a complete subscription offering or commercial API terms. **Access:** The research-subscription call to action is separate from reading the index. ## Getting started **Before you start:** Weighted event baskets do not cover every possible geopolitical outcome. 1. Open Chaos Index and select the relevant venue. 2. Read constituents, weights, revision date and machine-run date. 3. Use gaps to select questions for investigation, then verify original rules and current prices. Displayed model and constituent dates predate the source review; a LIVE label does not establish fresh data. ## Useful links - [Open Chaos Index]() ### What to check - Weighted event baskets do not cover every possible geopolitical outcome. - Escalation and peace are different event groups, not exact opposites. - Freshness and reconstruction of the aggregate are not independently established. A closer look ## Ratings & reviews Editorial rating **3.0**/ 5 0 user reviews PredictionToolkit editorial ### Our take on Prediction Index Constituents and distinct market/model views make the research traceable. Older run dates, basket selection and unverified aggregation require care with headline numbers, which are neither comprehensive global-risk probabilities nor executable quotes. Based on documented features, setup and access terms. [How we rate]() ### User reviews 0 The main score switches to user ratings after 5 published reviews. **Be the first to share your experience** A specific example helps the next person choose the right tool. ## Related tools [Browse category]() ![Adjacent editorial market research and newsletter archive]() ![Adjacent logo]()[Adjacent]() Research tool**3.5**Editorial Follow themes across event contracts using constructed indices, reference rates, research dashboards and market briefings. - Access Web · API · Email Compare formal index definitions and scales with this basket. ![Alphascope market-research entry point and forecasting tools]() ![Alphascope logo]()[Alphascope]() Research tool**3.0**Editorial Request an AI forecast from a link, question or image, then compare market odds and news context. - Access Web Investigate an individual question separately from the aggregate. ![Polysimplr official landing page introducing its prediction-market interface]() [Polysimplr]() Research tool**2.0**Editorial Shortlist markets, ask about price drivers and follow related headlines in one research interface. Also in AI, Research and Resolution Tools. ## Frequently asked questions about Prediction Index ### Can I buy Chaos Index as one contract? No order-entry workflow is established. It is an aggregate of constituent questions. ### Does LIVE mean the model ran today? No. The capture showed a September 29 run and August 25 constituent revision; read explicit dates. ### Is machine history backfilled? The operator says it starts at the first experiment without backfilled historical forecasts. ### Are war and peace complementary probabilities? No. They group different questions, such as war starting and ceasefire failure. In this profile