--- url: "https://predictiontoolkit.com/tools/octagon-ai/" publisher: "PredictionToolkit" dateModified: "2026-11-03" --- [← Forecasting]() ![Octagon logo]() Research tool # Octagon: compare researched probabilities with market prices Octagon combines cited event reports with structured prediction-market research. It compares a model’s estimated probability with the market-implied probability and provides news, basket research and developer interfaces for using that analysis. [**3.5**/ 5Editorial rating]() [Editorial assessment]() [Open Octagon]() octagonai.co **Available on:** Web · API · CLI · MCP **Pricing:** [See plans and costs ↓]() [Screenshots]() [Explore alternatives]() **Availability: public** [Forecasting]() [News & OSINT]() +4 more [Data APIs]() [MCP servers]() [CLI tools]() [Strategy builders]() ## Screenshots and interface Product preview1 / 2 The API view introduces developer access. ## What is Octagon? Read the underlying sources and event definition before interpreting a displayed edge. Here edge means model probability minus market probability: it is a disagreement between estimates, not an observed trading return. Research news links market moves back to reports, while Trust Index combines market-integrity and trade-quality inputs into a score. The site covers Polymarket and Kalshi, but some endpoints and thematic-basket workflows are specifically for Kalshi. Baskets express a thesis through several sized contracts; their backtests are hypothetical rather than executed account results. REST, MCP, SDK and the trading CLI offer different ways to incorporate research and supported actions into a process without establishing identical venue support. ### Who it is for - Researchers seeking event analysis with linked evidence. - Traders comparing model estimates with market prices. - Developers adding research to agents or trading tools. ## Research coverage and methods - **Event reports** Read summaries, probability estimates and supporting source links. Public report browsing is free. - **Model comparison and news** Compare model and market probabilities, follow market moves and open the research report behind them. - **Trust Index** Inspect the score combining market integrity and trade quality alongside the report’s underlying evidence. - **Thematic baskets** Review a thesis implemented through sized Kalshi contracts and distinguish hypothetical basket backtests from account performance. - **REST data** Search markets, inspect clusters and retrieve ranked model-edge data. Check whether the route is Kalshi-specific. - **MCP, SDK and CLI** Connect compatible AI clients and agents through MCP or SDK resources, or use the CLI for research and supported trading actions. ## Research tasks ### Research a contract Before using an edge from a report, connect its model estimate to the exact contract and the sources cited for it. Then compare that estimate with the contract's current market price. ### Evaluate a basket Read the thesis, check the rules of every contract and inspect the sizing of its legs before interpreting a backtest. ### Connect an agent Create an API key and choose MCP or REST. Budget credit consumption for the agent type and required request volume. ## Pricing and total cost Public reports are free to browse. Paid API and agent access includes a 15-day trial; the displayed Plus and Pro monthly equivalents require annual billing. ### Plus, annual billing US$17/month equivalent, billed annually - 200 credits/month. - Agent access, MCP and API keys. ### Pro, annual billing US$41/month equivalent, billed annually - 600 credits/month. - Historical prediction-market reports. ### Enterprise Custom - Team access and customized workflows. ### Fees and usage costs - 500 additional credits cost US$50. - Prediction-market agents use 3 credits per call, public-market agents use 1 and deep research uses 2. ## Research inputs and access 1. Browse a report for a market you follow. 2. Inspect its sources and the model-versus-price comparison. 3. Choose a paid plan for the access and request volume needed. 4. Create an API key or connect an MCP client. 5. Track credits consumed by each agent type. ## Useful links ### What to check - Broad venue coverage does not mean every endpoint or basket workflow supports both venues. - Displayed annual-plan monthly equivalents require annual billing. - Basket backtests are hypothetical, separate from executed account results. - Model edge is disagreement with price, not an observed trading return. - Several endpoints and basket workflows are Kalshi-specific despite the site’s broader Polymarket and Kalshi coverage. A closer look ## Ratings & reviews Editorial rating **3.5**/ 5 0 user reviews PredictionToolkit editorial ### Our take on Octagon Editorial rating: 3.5/5. Linked sources and multiple developer interfaces support an inspectable research process. Model-price differences are estimates, and some documented workflows remain Kalshi-specific despite the wider site coverage. **Assessment criteria:** Task usefulness, documented scope, setup clarity, and access and cost transparency. **Assessment date:** 2026-10-05 **Documentation reviewed:** 2026-10-02 Documentation-based assessment. [How we rate]() ### User reviews 0 The main score switches to user ratings after 5 published reviews. **Be the first to share your experience** A specific example helps the next person choose the right tool. ## Related tools [Browse category]() ![Eversight research composer and market attachment entry]() [Eversight and Signals APIs]() Research tool**3.5**Editorial Request probabilities and retrieve attributed market signals through separate Numinous research APIs. - Access Web · API Also in Forecasting and Research Tools. ![Alphascope market-research entry point and forecasting tools]() ![Alphascope logo]()[Alphascope]() Research tool**3.0**Editorial Request an AI forecast from a link, question or image, then compare market odds and news context. - Access Web Compare event research and probability analysis. ![Polyseer market-link input and research entry page]() ![Polyseer logo]()[Polyseer]() Research tool**3.0**Editorial Paste a Polymarket or Kalshi contract link to start a focused AI research task through Valyu. - Access Web Compare an open research workflow. ## Frequently asked questions about Octagon ### Can I browse reports without subscribing? Yes. Public report browsing is offered free. ### What does edge mean? Model probability minus market probability. It is an estimated difference, not realized trading performance. ### What does a prediction-market agent call consume? 3 credits per call. Different agent types have different credit costs. ### Does Pro include historical reports? Yes. Historical prediction-market reports are among its listed additions. In this profile