--- url: "https://predictiontoolkit.com/tools/manifold/" publisher: "PredictionToolkit" dateModified: "2026-11-02" --- [← Prediction platforms]() ![Manifold logo]() Platform # Manifold Manifold makes question creation and discussion central to prediction markets. Users define resolution criteria, trade outcome shares with virtual mana and follow one another’s records. Mana cannot be converted to cash; optional prize drawings operate as a separate program. [**4.0**/ 5Editorial rating]() [Editorial assessment]() [Explore Manifold markets and questions]() manifold.markets **Available on:** Web · Mobile app **Pricing:** [See plans and costs ↓]() [Screenshots]() [Explore alternatives]() **Availability: public** [Prediction platforms]() [Paper trading]() +3 more [Communities]() [Forecasting]() [Leaderboards]() ## Screenshots and interface Product preview1 / 1 Overview of the community prediction-market service. ## What is Manifold? A disputed claim can become a user-created market with its own observable outcome, deadline and resolution source. Participants express views through trading and comments, so the current crowd estimate can be read together with the reasoning behind it. Topic discovery covers politics, technology, sports and other subjects, with access through the web and linked mobile app. Use the public record to examine forecast updates and settled questions, not as a cash-return track record. Resolution wording depends on the market author, and a thin market may move with only a few participants. Prize drawings have a free-entry route and their own entry and payout rules; they do not create a cash-redemption right for mana. ### Who it is for - Forecasters practicing with virtual stakes. - Communities wanting to create and discuss their own questions. - Researchers studying probability changes alongside participant reasoning. ## Markets and platform rules - **User-created questions** Create a market rather than waiting for an exchange to list the question, and write its resolution criteria. - **Virtual outcome shares** Express a view with virtual mana and read the market’s current crowd probability. - **Evidence and discussion** Use comments to explain evidence, challenge assumptions and discuss forecast changes. - **Topics and public records** Browse politics, technology, sports and other topics, then follow traders and their past activity. - **Web and mobile access** Use the web service or its linked mobile application. - **Separate prize drawings** Optional prize drawings have separate rules and do not convert mana into withdrawable cash. ## Market participation workflows ### Write a useful market question Specify an observable outcome, deadline and resolution source before inviting other traders. ### Practice updating a forecast Record an initial view, then adjust it when new evidence changes the probability and explain important changes in comments. ### Read a market as research Compare price changes with comments and participant activity, then revisit resolved questions to assess your judgment. ## Pricing and total cost New users receive 1,000 mana. It is play money that cannot be redeemed for cash. Prize drawings offer a free-entry path and use separate participation and payout rules. ## Access and participation 1. Create an account and read a market’s rules before using the allocated virtual mana. 2. Explain important forecast updates in comments; define resolution clearly if creating your own market. 3. Review resolved questions and your public history to evaluate forecasting judgment. ## Useful links ### What to check - Mana performance does not measure cash trading returns. - Resolution wording is written by users and varies in quality. - A small group can move a thinly traded market. - Prize drawings do not make mana redeemable for cash. A closer look ## Ratings & reviews Editorial rating **4.0**/ 5 0 user reviews PredictionToolkit editorial ### Our take on Manifold User-created questions, discussion and public virtual records make Manifold a flexible forecasting environment. Variable author-written resolution quality and the separation of mana from cash returns remain essential to interpreting that record. **Assessment criteria:** Task usefulness, documented scope, setup clarity, and access and cost transparency. **Assessment date:** 2026-10-05 **Documentation reviewed:** 2026-10-02 Documentation-based assessment. [How we rate]() ### User reviews 0 The main score switches to user ratings after 5 published reviews. **Be the first to share your experience** A specific example helps the next person choose the right tool. ## Related tools [Browse category]() ![Official Metaculus tutorial showing how to set a binary probability.]() [Metaculus]() Research tool**4.0**Editorial Direct probability forecasting with community comparison, defined resolution criteria and scored records. - Access Web · API Compare forecasting through direct probability estimates. ![Duel Duck public duel cards on its Solana venue]() ![Duel Duck logo]()[Duel Duck]() Platform**3.5**Editorial A separate Solana prediction venue for community-created yes/no duels and embeddable event questions. - Access Web Also in Related Prediction Market Platforms. ![Called It App Store listing and provider phone previews]() ![Called It logo]()[Called It]() Platform**3.0**Editorial A private group can track friends' calls in virtual Cred and consult imported market odds as a reference. - Access iOS · iPadOS Compare private forecasting games for groups of friends. ## Frequently asked questions about Manifold ### Can mana be withdrawn as cash? No. Mana is virtual play money; prize drawings follow a separate program. ### How much does a new account receive? A new user starts with 1,000 mana. ### Can users create their own questions? Yes. Define the outcome, deadline and resolution criteria clearly so others can trade and discuss the question. ### Are prize drawings the same as trading winnings? No. Drawings have separate entry and payout rules, including a free-entry route. In this profile