--- url: "https://predictiontoolkit.com/tools/cme-fedwatch/" publisher: "PredictionToolkit" dateModified: "2026-11-03" --- [← Economic research]() Research tool # CME FedWatch: put rate-decision probabilities in context CME FedWatch translates CME Fed Funds futures prices into probabilities for Federal Reserve rate decisions. It offers a market-based reference for researching FOMC contracts, provided the meeting and outcome definitions match. [**4.0**/ 5Editorial rating]() [Editorial assessment]() [Open the official CME FedWatch page]() www.cmegroup.com **Available on:** Web **Pricing:** [See plans and costs ↓]() [Screenshots]() [Explore alternatives]() **Availability: public** [Economic research]() [Forecasting]() ## Screenshots and interface Product preview1 / 1 Official information-page capture. It documents the presentation, without establishing the performance of the embedded probability feed. ## What is CME FedWatch? The framework uses 30-Day Fed Funds futures rather than prediction-market prices. Its probabilities follow CME’s methodology and do not represent a forecast issued by the Federal Reserve. The distinction matters when comparing numbers derived from different instruments. Begin with the meeting date, starting rate and target-rate range. A contract about the size of a rate change is not automatically equivalent to a particular target range. Read the methodology and check timestamps before interpreting a difference between markets. ### Who it is for - Macro researchers investigating expectations around an FOMC decision. - Traders comparing a prediction-market contract with a futures-based reference. ## Research coverage and methods - **Futures-implied probabilities** Explore CME’s framework for deriving FOMC outcome probabilities from 30-Day Fed Funds futures. - **Meeting and rate-range context** Use the meeting date and target-rate outcomes to define what is being compared. - **Calculation guidance** The public page links to the official methodology and user guide. API access is presented separately. ## Research tasks ### Map an outcome Select the same FOMC meeting as the contract under research. Map a rate-change outcome to the same starting rate and target range before comparing probabilities. ### Investigate differing values Check both timestamps and CME’s calculation method. Interpret the difference with the instruments and outcome definitions in view, rather than assuming the values measure an identical event. ## Pricing and total cost The public FedWatch information page can be accessed. This does not establish commercial API rights or a market-data licence; those separate terms were not confirmed. **Access:** The interactive tool is embedded through CME’s provider. Methodology and user-guide links are available on the public page. ## Research inputs and access 1. Open the official FedWatch page and read the user guide. 2. Identify the FOMC meeting and target-rate range relevant to your question. 3. Check the calculation method and data timestamps before comparing with another market. ## Useful links ### What to check - The probabilities depend on CME’s futures-based methodology and are neither official Fed forecasts nor guaranteed outcomes. - Embedded data delivery has not been benchmarked. Do not infer latency or commercial data rights from public page access. - Use the provider’s embedded tool for the interactive view; the public information page is not evidence of an unrestricted data API. A closer look ## Ratings & reviews Editorial rating **4.0**/ 5 0 user reviews PredictionToolkit editorial ### Our take on CME FedWatch A useful market-based reference supported by an official methodology. Its value in prediction-market research depends on careful mapping of meetings and outcomes, with timestamp differences kept visible. **Assessment criteria:** Task usefulness, documented scope, setup clarity, and access and cost transparency. **Assessment date:** 2026-10-26 **Documentation reviewed:** 2026-10-26 Documentation-based assessment. [How we rate]() ### User reviews 0 The main score switches to user ratings after 5 published reviews. **Be the first to share your experience** A specific example helps the next person choose the right tool. ## Related tools [Browse category]() ![FRED Economic Data public homepage with data search, tags and chart access.]() ![FRED Economic Data logo]()[FRED Economic Data]() Research tool**4.0**Editorial Economic-data search and history for checking the precise measure behind a macro contract. - Access Web Use FRED to examine inflation and employment data around rate expectations. ![Seeker Labs public index-research homepage and venue-coverage navigation]() ![Seeker Labs logo]()[Seeker Labs]() Analytics**4.0**Editorial Explore themed prediction-market benchmarks and their construction, keeping consensus, disagreement and venue activity distinct. - Access Web Compare the methodology of another market-implied index provider. ![Adjacent editorial market research and newsletter archive]() ![Adjacent logo]()[Adjacent]() Research tool**3.5**Editorial Follow themes across event contracts using constructed indices, reference rates, research dashboards and market briefings. - Access Web · API · Email Also in Economic Research and Data for Prediction Markets. ## Frequently asked questions about CME FedWatch ### Does the Federal Reserve publish these probabilities? No. CME derives them from 30-Day Fed Funds futures using its own methodology. ### Can a target-rate range be compared directly with a rate-change contract? Only after both are mapped to the same starting rate, meeting and outcome definition. ### Does access to the public page include a commercial API licence? No such entitlement was established. Commercial API and market-data terms are separate from access to the information page. ### Where is the interactive view? It is embedded through CME’s provider; the surrounding page supplies the methodology and user guide. In this profile